8 signs that Donald Trump has a progressive form of dementia
And how our media is failing, wildly, in one of the most important stories in US history
Note to readers: Before I turned full time to AI, the usual topic of this newsletter, I spent decades focused on human psychology, mostly as a full professor at NYU. Forgive me this once for covering psychology rather than AI. Even if you disagree with my political interpretations, I hope you will hear me out and consider the totality of the evidence.
Yesterday I issued one of the bluntest warnings I have ever written. Well over half a million people have viewed it on X:
(As I noted in a followup clarification, “Strictly speaking Trump didn’t literally threaten Cheney with violence; he merely ideated about her having 9 rifles pointed at her. From the perspective of the point I was making — that he can’t keep his mouth shut about his socially inappropriate thoughts (disinhibition) - this makes no difference.”)
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The chilling thing is that in the twelve hours after I posted that, we saw at least four MORE incidents, including more signs of foul language and disinhibition, and more signs of disorientation in his stump speeches, including rambling answers like these, at least twice yesterday (which I am counting as Signs 5 and 6 from the last two days)
and this (Sign 7 from the last two days)
Most incredibly, later yesterday, in front of a live national television audience, Trump performed simulated fellatio on a microphone stand:
Biden may have memory troubles (and I supported Ezra Klein’s suggestion of replacing him on the ticket), but he certainly never fellated a mic stand. Neither would make a good President in 2025; one already stepped aside, the other should.
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As Meiselas put it on X, discussing the microphone incident, the fellatio incident fits with dementia:
“Yes, people with dementia can experience changes in sexual behavior, including confusion about sex: Inappropriate behavior. People with dementia may behave in a sexually inappropriate way, such as making sexual comments or touching themselves in public. This can be due to a loss of inhibitions, or they may not understand that their behavior is inappropriate.”
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I have recapped 8 signs — from Thursday and Friday alone. There have been many more in recent memory, like Arnold Palmer incident on October 20 [“This is a guy that was all man… This man was strong and tough, and I refuse to say it, but when he took showers with the other pros, they came out of there, they said, 'Oh my God, that's unbelievable’’]
Disorientation, dysfluency, disinhibition, and challenges with motor control - we are seeing it over and over, and it’s obviously getting worse.
People are used to Trump being disjointed but the severe failures to inhibit, as well as the motor control difficulties are ominous signs that are new.
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Until yesterday, no presidential candidate in US history had ever ideated publicly about surrounding a political opponent with rifles nor publicly simulated fellatio.
Trump did both of these things - in one day.
He needs help; his frontal cortex is not functioning properly. He almost certainly some sort of progressive dementia.
He should not be President.
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The media is failing. The individual incidents have all been reported, but seemingly nobody is putting it all together.
When Biden flubbed the debate, The New York Times called for him to step down.
When Trump gave a simulated blow job to a microphone, it’s not even on the front page.
𝗕𝘆 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗹𝘆 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝗺𝗽’𝘀 𝗻𝗲𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗹𝗼𝗴𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗱𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻, 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗺𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗮 𝗶𝘀 𝗷𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗱𝗶𝘇𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻.
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Some of media’s timidity may stem from the old Goldwater rule – don’t diagnose from a distance.
That rule (really just a proposal from one organization, not a law or something universally agreed on within the field) is antiquated. Trump is so well covered in the media that most practitioners would have seen far more of Trump on TV than they ever would see any single patient in a clinic. More than that, we don’t need a specific diagnosis here (e.g. is it Alzheimer’s or frontotemporal dementia) to see that something is deeply awry. One of the people who drafted the Goldwater hypothesis just came forward:
Even if most neurologists don’t want to speak out, others are starting to.
Some are:
(and now failure to inhibit, too).
Caregivers too are increasingly willing to step forward; my posts on X yesterday brought out several, like this one:
Children of people whose parents went through dementia have also started to speak up, even at the cost of sharing deeply personal experiences:
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Dear Media,
Don’t be cowed by the Goldwater rule:
Call Dr. Lance Dodes. Reach out to the group Duty2Warn
You can also speak to neurologists off the record. Some will talk, even if you can’t use their name. Virtually all will see what I am saying.
You can speak to caregivers at assisted living facilities.
You can speak to people whose parents have struggled with (or died from) dementia.
You can write this story – and you must.
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With election being on Tuesday, this is the most urgent post I have ever written. If you are in the mainstream media, or know someone who is, for the love of democracy, please cover Trump’s apparent dementia.
At the very least, consider sharing this post on social media.
Update a day later: Trump has continued to exhibit further signs of dementia, including another long, confused monologue about Hannibal Lecter, and confusion about who the current President of the United States is (mistakenly thinking Harris was already President). Major media largely continue to shy away from acknowledging the scope of the problem.
Gary Marcus is an emeritus professor of psychology and neural science at NYU, and is co-editor of The Future of the Brain, now in its second edition. Generally he writes about the future of AI, but the future of democracy is also pretty darned important.
It has been suggested that this is the plan. This is why Musk et al. supported Vance as the VP candidate (he who seemingly came out of nowhere and is the least liked VP candidate ever). Several months after inauguration, the 25th Amendment will be invoked, Vance, who could never have been elected on his own, will be President. If one really wants to be cynical, if they could hold out for 2 years and 1 day, Vance could finish the remaining term and still be elected 2 more times.
Please watch the entire clip of the microphone schtick, about 4 minutes.
https://www.c-span.org/video/?c5139793/president-trump-jokes-microphone-issues
Trump is performing a comedy routine. The act is, "I'm letting you in on some behind the scenes info," with pantomime.
Gary Marcus, The Daily Beast, and others interpret one two-second segment of this as a simulated sex act. If you look at the entire context, it is no such thing. He is miming his attempt to speak into a mic that is too low. Watch the clip 20 seconds later. He strikes the same pose while again acting out the mic check:
"...then I walk in like this and I'm bending. Did you notice? I was bending over like this. 'Hello?' And then everybody says, is there something wrong with his back?..."
Then literally 20 seconds later, he says (gesturing to one part of the crowd) "I'm going to give you a free performance back in that corner, you got a bad area back there."
Trump is an entertainer. He honed his chops with World Wide Wrestling, which turns transgression into a fine art. This is not an audience who came to contemplate foreign trade policy or the need to bootstrap energy storage technologies.
None of this is to defend Trump's politics, policies, knowledge, judgment, values, or any of the other qualifications for president. He is known to be willfully ignorant about history and domestic and foreign policy. He's a conman, a crook, a wannabe mob boss, and a cult leader. He may indeed be declining cognitively in some ways, as happens with age. But riffing on whatever he can get away with is not evidence of that. Running from rally to rally is exhausting. Anyone will fumble when tired.
An effective defense against Trumpism and its threat to the American experiment requires an accurate understanding of the situation. The Left is often accused of having Trump Derangement Syndrome. It is not deranged to see how damaging Trump and his enablers are to the country. But when intelligent, qualified, people who should know better mis-portray his act and mis-read his appeal, then that sets us backward.