Belief in magic may be declining
garymarcus.substack.com
No time to write today, but here is a fascinating graph, hat tip to Jeffrey Funk:
Maybe, and I am just spitballing, LLMs aren’t quite the magic panacea that the industry lead us all to believe?
See also this report February 13 at WSJ
and this one, February 16
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So let me get this straight? Sora’s can’t reliably handle basic physics, ChatGPT had an unexplained meltdown, Gemini can’t even remember who was on Apollo 11, there are no formal guarantees that any of this will ever work, you yourself admit you don’t know how it works, or how much better it will get next time around, and you want another $7 trillion dollars?
Got it. Mind if I grab a sweater?
Gary Marcus has said from day 1 that LLMs are oversold.
No surprise Gemini doesn't know who was on Apollo 11. Gemini came before Apollo.
There's another WSJ article on Copilot that essentially says the only useful bit is meeting summaries, and even those have confabulations (Bob talked about product development, when there was no Bob and no discussion of product development). The Excel tool (still not official) was especially called out as being useless, while event the PPT was not worth anyone's time. Microsoft said it planned to nudge users to use the tools.