Clarification from Ray Kurzweil
He’s still down for 2029, same as ever
Oops! In a recent essay (which I have now updated), I misunderstood Ray Kurzweil to be revising his prediction for AGI to a later year (perhaps 2032), based on this except from a recent interview:
Ray just emailed me (22 June 2024) with an important clarification of his position:
I have not revised and not redefined my prediction of AGI, still defined as AI that can perform any cognitive task an educated human can. I still still believe that will happen by 2029. My comment to Steven Levy was intended to specify that reaching the level of the best human poets is a higher bar for writing than what a "mere" AGI would achieve, and thus might take longer.
Kudos to him for staying strong to his position.
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At TED, Ray and I talked about having a debate; I am hoping that comes pass. We have a great host, and it would be super fun.
Gary Marcus stands by his own prediction that we will not see AGI by 2029, per criteria he discussed here.
Kudos for keeping it real and sharing the updates and changes as they happen.
I’m here for exactly this.
Hi Gary
I’m not sure that differentiating poetic AGI from “mere” AGI helps. Surely AGI is a state that you either achieve or you don’t. Personally I don’t think we’re even close to it or that we ever will achieve it. Our understanding of the brain is so limited and constrained by the things we do understand. It’s only 100 years or so since we thought the brain worked like a telephone exchange, then 50 years ago it was a computer.
I’ve spent my entire 40+ years working in tech but I don’t believe any of this. It’s arrogance and hubris beyond belief to think that this is even remotely achievable.
Keep up your skepticism!