I have a lot of moral issues with Elon Musk, separately, that are part of a different discussion--but a broken clock can be right twice a day.
People focused on the general intelligence bit are missing the real damage it is doing *right now* to privacy, job security, copyright, and human creativity. I think pointing out that openAI has strayed far from its original non profit structure, and what that means— could address multiple concerns.
Something funny to consider is that the plaintiffs (Musk) are arguing that GPT-4 is an AGI, and could make a somewhat compelling case to a judge that it is an AGI on the grounds that it is smarter than the median human by showing its performance on various exams like the SAT.
We might wind up with an amusing hypothetical where OpenAI has to explain to a judge that GPT-4 isn't actually smarter than the median human at all, contrary to the hype. Their defense could very well consist of numerous examples of bizarre hallucinations as they try to explain to a judge (who isn't particularly tech-savvy) that it doesn't even think. It's just next-token prediction based on large quantities of training data. "Your honor, we're nowhere even close to AGI!"
If didn't know any better I'd think this is some elaborate 5D chess move by Elon Musk to troll OpenAI into admitting in a courtroom that they are full of shit, which might be considered "misleading investors" by the SEC.
I don't think Musk has a case. OpenAI has a non-profit branch and a for-profit one. If their lawyers are any good, and if Microsoft is not a total fool, they should have done their homework beforehand in insulating the two.
As to Musk suing people, he's just Musk. The biggest nut and mad genius the world has got.
Over time it seems you have minimized the chances that AGI might soon be in a position to "destroy every human in the universe". I wonder if you are shifting to see that as a more plausible threat? (I do see it as a plausible threat beginning in the 2-3 decade timeframe)
In a week of (IMHO) bleak legal news finally some "good" legal news. Here's hoping the the trial will make it to Court TV (is Court TV still a thing?). Then the only real question will be what flavor of popcorn.
“[d]evelopment of superhuman machine intelligence (SMI) is probably the greatest threat to the continued existence of humanity. There are other threats that I think are more certain to happen... but are unlikely to destroy every human in the universe in the way that SMI could."
The bigger threat is actually whack philosophies (in Silicon Valley heads) like Longertmism, which this sounds like an echo of. “The mind is the lever that moves the world.” ... and this is mental.
I am starting to have doubts about having open AI models floating around would be a good idea. Given that there is a proliferation of fraudulent GPTs (https://www.wsj.com/articles/welcome-to-the-era-of-badgpts-a104afa8) because of the initial openness, we can expect bad actors to become increasingly empowered if we keep AI open. What is Elon thinking?
I am doubtful about Elon Musk acting for the sake of all mankind. I would rather suppose he would like his share of the potential benefits from AI recent and future developments. Or to keep some control over these developments. Open AI actually deviated from its original purposes. There is perhaps a need for a new, nonprofit, ethically guided, funded out of the stock market, global company working on AI. A company (or organization) which will aim at safety, reliability and intellectual property protection and which will provide free access and open source AI products all over the world.
Also interesting that the lawsuit wants a judge to declare GPT 4 as an AGI: it requests "a judicial determination that GPT-4 constitutes Artificial General Intelligence and is thereby outside the scope of OpenAI’s license to Microsoft"
I have a lot of moral issues with Elon Musk, separately, that are part of a different discussion--but a broken clock can be right twice a day.
People focused on the general intelligence bit are missing the real damage it is doing *right now* to privacy, job security, copyright, and human creativity. I think pointing out that openAI has strayed far from its original non profit structure, and what that means— could address multiple concerns.
Something funny to consider is that the plaintiffs (Musk) are arguing that GPT-4 is an AGI, and could make a somewhat compelling case to a judge that it is an AGI on the grounds that it is smarter than the median human by showing its performance on various exams like the SAT.
We might wind up with an amusing hypothetical where OpenAI has to explain to a judge that GPT-4 isn't actually smarter than the median human at all, contrary to the hype. Their defense could very well consist of numerous examples of bizarre hallucinations as they try to explain to a judge (who isn't particularly tech-savvy) that it doesn't even think. It's just next-token prediction based on large quantities of training data. "Your honor, we're nowhere even close to AGI!"
If didn't know any better I'd think this is some elaborate 5D chess move by Elon Musk to troll OpenAI into admitting in a courtroom that they are full of shit, which might be considered "misleading investors" by the SEC.
OpenAI could maybe escape by (correctly) claiming AGI is not on the cards...
Open AI to Xi Jinping might not be a good idea.
I don't think Musk has a case. OpenAI has a non-profit branch and a for-profit one. If their lawyers are any good, and if Microsoft is not a total fool, they should have done their homework beforehand in insulating the two.
As to Musk suing people, he's just Musk. The biggest nut and mad genius the world has got.
Wow! Elon Musk complaining about Altman not being "consistently candid". That is chutzpah.
Also, tip for all you AI pessimists. Make a bundle by shorting Nvidia.
I agree Musk has a point.
Over time it seems you have minimized the chances that AGI might soon be in a position to "destroy every human in the universe". I wonder if you are shifting to see that as a more plausible threat? (I do see it as a plausible threat beginning in the 2-3 decade timeframe)
In a week of (IMHO) bleak legal news finally some "good" legal news. Here's hoping the the trial will make it to Court TV (is Court TV still a thing?). Then the only real question will be what flavor of popcorn.
“[d]evelopment of superhuman machine intelligence (SMI) is probably the greatest threat to the continued existence of humanity. There are other threats that I think are more certain to happen... but are unlikely to destroy every human in the universe in the way that SMI could."
The bigger threat is actually whack philosophies (in Silicon Valley heads) like Longertmism, which this sounds like an echo of. “The mind is the lever that moves the world.” ... and this is mental.
https://aeon.co/essays/why-longtermism-is-the-worlds-most-dangerous-secular-credo
While the rich are duking it out, human skills and experience are slowly being lost forever.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/simonay_air-canada-chatbot-fiasco-hints-at-more-litigation-activity-7169629565911322624-SepK?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
I am starting to have doubts about having open AI models floating around would be a good idea. Given that there is a proliferation of fraudulent GPTs (https://www.wsj.com/articles/welcome-to-the-era-of-badgpts-a104afa8) because of the initial openness, we can expect bad actors to become increasingly empowered if we keep AI open. What is Elon thinking?
I am doubtful about Elon Musk acting for the sake of all mankind. I would rather suppose he would like his share of the potential benefits from AI recent and future developments. Or to keep some control over these developments. Open AI actually deviated from its original purposes. There is perhaps a need for a new, nonprofit, ethically guided, funded out of the stock market, global company working on AI. A company (or organization) which will aim at safety, reliability and intellectual property protection and which will provide free access and open source AI products all over the world.
Also interesting that the lawsuit wants a judge to declare GPT 4 as an AGI: it requests "a judicial determination that GPT-4 constitutes Artificial General Intelligence and is thereby outside the scope of OpenAI’s license to Microsoft"