OpenAI just announced GPT-5. I stand by my predictions from a couple weeks ago; none of the problems I said would not be solved appear to have been solved..
Here’s my hot take:
• Took almost 3 years, many billions of dollars (over a half-trillion fieldwide).
• Good progress on many fronts.
• But still part of the pack, not a giant leap forward (e.g. Grok 4 beats it on ARC-AGI-2 results)
• OpenAI conveniently forgot to include this comparison (ARC-AGI-2) in their livestream recital of benchmark progress, which left the livestream looking like marketing rather than science.
• Fan will still find something to rejoince in, but GPT-5 is not the huge leap forward people long expected.
• Lots of questions TBD about real-world performance.
• GPT-5 is obviously not AGI.
Also:
• Pricing is good, but profits may continue to be elusive; still no clear technical moat.
• What was up with multiple graphs (at least two) in which the bars didn’t match the numbers? Did GPT-5 make them??
Quote of the day: “I dont wanna read anything about exponential progress anymore”,
—X user @flowersslop
and for good measure, a deceptive (or just confused?) graph about deception:
“AGI 2027” seems more and more remote by the day.
Gary Marcus thinks that perhaps scaling is not in fact all you need.
LOL, those graphs. This is what we call vibe-charting. It is how you report your vibe-coding progress to your manager.
You have to wonder about the ego required to put up such sloppy graphs.