$10 million says we won’t see human-superior AGI by the end of 2025

An open letter to Elon Musk

Dear Elon,

Yesterday you said on an X Space:

“AI is the fastest advancing technology that I've ever seen of any kind, and I've seen a lot of technology. You know barely a week goes by without some new announcement, and if you look at the amount of AI hardware, the computers coming online that are dedicated to AI, that is increasing what looks like at least by a factor of 10 every year, if not every 6 to nine months. So when you combine the hardware coming online really an order of magnitude increase every you know—call it at least every nine months—and many, many software breakthroughs, if you look at that curve it looks insane. My guess is that we'll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year, and then AI, the total amount of sort of sentient compute of AI, I think will probably exceed all humans in 5 years.”

I don’t buy the predictions for the next year¹, and just said as much on X:

Moments later, Damion Hankejh, Investor and CEO of ingk.com, offered to up the bet to $10 million. Are you in?

Best,

Gary

Gary Marcus first suggested in 2016 that outliers would be a serious and difficult-to-overcome challenge for driverless cars, and first anticipated hallucinations in large neural networks in 2001.

1. I don’t really even understand the prediction for five years out, so leave that to a future discussion. What is sentient compute?