149 Comments

Thank you, Gary. Another analysis that might resonate with you and your readers: https://www.hamiltonnolan.com/p/gangster-party

"The goal of all this is not “remaking the government in a conservative image”—it is “if you want anything, you have to ask me for it.” The rules that governed how the government works are tossed out and replaced with “Trump’s will.” That’s how mob bosses rule."

It will only get worse until more of us stand up and force them to stop.

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To understand what is going on here, I believe that you have to go back to Musk's original pre-Paypal vision of X as the single site that offered all services including "information," commerce, and finance. The way he intends to get there is the same way Putin got where he is: cause a governmental collapse, privatize everything and divide it up amongst your fellow oligarchs, with you at the top.

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Vladimir Putin did NOT cause any governmental collapse. That collapse was authored by the Harvard ivory tower boys who sold "Shock Treatment" which was a pet conservative theory that Clinton liked. It's all written in the economy. Jeffrey Sachs has spent the rest of his life doing penance for that. He knows it because he was stupid young point man for it. Boris Yeltsin had a well-deserved 6% popularity rating at the end of his terms. Vladimir Putin has a rating over 60% verified by Western polling agencies for most of his time in office.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD?locations=RU

Right there in this chart in 1999 is when Vladimir Putin's group took power. If an American president showed those results, we would allow him to be president for life.

Vladimir Putin's people are a group. He is definitely not a dictator, he is the guy who works well with others that everyone respects enough to come together. Putin also has the coolest head of anyone in the Kremlin, which they also respect. (You should be grateful he does. We would have had a war quite a while ago without him.) He does not jump without looking, and he is not ruled by a temper. (That is a problem in Russia.) Also, Russians in general have an aversion to the limelight. It has been the guy in the limelight who gets chopped for centuries. Putin was ok with it.

The demonization of Vladimir Putin began in the West precisely because he was so effective at saving his country. His group reformed the Russian tax system. It became possible to pay a reasonable tax. His group worked with people who understood how a central bank works to get Russia's central bank and treasury working properly for the first time in Russia's history. That led to gnashing of teeth, because the New York financiers had plans. Those plans had already carved up Russia's resources between them. They are still pissed off about it.

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"If an American president showed those results, we would allow him to be president for life."

No, "we" wouldn't. That statement, right there, shows your shocking lack of understanding of American democracy. Are you a Russian troll, by chance, because most of your so-called "facts" are rife with misstatements, half-truths and misinterpretations.

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You wouldn't mind sharing those western polling numbers confirming Vladimir's popularity, would you? 🙂

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https://www.statista.com/statistics/896181/putin-approval-rating-russia/

You will notice that the approval rating of Russia's leader went up after the invasion. This is the kind of thing that has led me, as an analyst (published through West Point) to call Putin the coolest head in the Kremlin.

Not understanding and falsely characterizing your opponent is how you lose battles and wars.

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Thanks for that, I don't know much about their methodology, but the source looks reasonable enough. 🙂 Given your hypothesis about reasonable and reserved Putin, how do you explain war in Ukraine, crushing of political dissent inside of Russia and the economic and social predicament Russia finds itself in?

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How about the vision of the founders in the bill of rights? Elon is a trust fund kid with drug problems and family issues. Can’t see why anyone should care much about his ‘vision’ for anything when the guy is such a train wreck, like his current (and past?) sponsors.

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“When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty” – Thomas Jefferson

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The fall of the USSR was due mainly to the failures of Communism and hastened by Gorbachev’s reforms and abandonment of the Brezhnev Doctrine, failing post-World War II economy and weakened military, ethnic tensions, wealth disparity and foreign attacks on the Soviet economy. People like Putin were the last to want to see the collapse of the USSR. What's the evidence that Putin caused the collapse of the USSR?

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America's oligarchs are its bureaucrats, and they have been for a long time.

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The opposition to Trump will be making a big mistake if they fall into the usual tropes about racism, transphobia, etc. Yes racists voted for Trump, but almost eighty million people voted for him. Is there any evidence that most of these people are racist, or (absurdly) angry that Obama was elected? I think you'll find that many of them, if not most, voted for Trump not because they are xenophobic, but because they feel alienated from a political process which does nothing to represent their interests. The cosmopolitan elite who claim to be on their side do nothing to ameliorate their economic or social anxieties, and instead harangue them about what they can and can't say, what their kids can and can't be taught, what values are and are not acceptable, etc. This is what Trump's trans-ads were about - not tapping into some deep-seated transphobia, but about an elite pursuing an agenda completely disconnected from what the mass of people actually want or need. Trump claims to be on their side in a language they understand. Democrats couldn't even manage that, first promoting a senile 82 year old who could barely finish a sentence, and then Harris whose overblown rhetoric and celebrity friends represented everything about the elites people had come to resent. Of course Trump is going to be a disaster. But unless "the left" actually engage in some introspection and goes back to its socialist roots, things are only going to get worse.

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Amen. How so many fail to see this obvious analysis is beyond me. It seems to reveal a blind spot driven primarily by social class. A large proportion of people who went to nice schools and never worked manual labor to make a living just seem to have a very hard time seeing the obvious things you point out.

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I think part of the problem is that it's uncomfortable, since seeing this is actually acknowledging that they are in large part responsible. I had however hoped that being "the mature" one in this dysfunctional relationship could also be somewhat rewarding. You know, if setting the world straight wasn't enough.

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Couldn't agree more. I did not copy your comment when I wrote mine, but I pretty much could've =). I also thought it was pretty comical when Biden literally said he was turning things over to the younger generation; Harris is 60.

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I think we are on a "worst course" already. The Republicans are shouting, "Our mandate!" and implementing the same loony Republican platform junk that gets them kicked out of majority office over and over.

There is no "mandate". The vote for Trump was rejection of the loony Democrats that have become the party of hypocrisy, stupidity, and war. People want relief from dingbats and extremists. But what we are getting is some sane ones, and a couple extremist dingbats. At this point, I class Elon as a dingbat, and RFK Jr. as a dingbat.

Elon is a dingbat because, first, he is a rhinoceros in a china shop. This is just not how you conduct politics. You don't fire and say F**k you to your good friends and supporters. (This is showing an unpleasant side to Elon that has been hidden until now inside his companies.) You don't fire a figurative cannon at an agency when a review group with pens is called for. Elon cannot comprehend this because he's too Aspie to understand normal humans. He has little stake in the US government, and is so Aspie he attacked NASA (who pays him) "to be even handed." I am slightly heartened to see Elon caught b*llsh*tting, and contradicting the ISS astronauts. It shows his dimwit side clearly. I am slightly heartened to see NASA tell its staff that they are going to handle communicating with Elon. I am heartened that DNI (Tulsi Gabbard), DoD (Hegseth), and DoJ (Kash Patel), all told their staff not to answer his email. This should have been a no-brainer had Elon been paired with anybody who understood the government much. NASA is standing up to him, but mostly could legally respond. The others, it would be breaking laws right and left to tell someone outside what you did.

Elon's GIANT dingbat is that he does not understand the US monetary system at all. I highly recommend Nathan Tankus' Notes on the Crises. He's been trying to cover the DOGE issues. He is not charging for these.

https://www.crisesnotes.com/how-can-we-know-if-government-payments-stop-an-exploratory-analysis-of-banking-system-warning-signs/?ref=notes-on-the-crises-newsletter

The problem with Elon not understanding the monetary system is that when he cuts spending by government he thinks this increases money in the private sector. The opposite is true. All public sector spending increases money in the private sector. Remove $1 trillion from the private sector and you have hit the economy over the head with a big baseball bat. ($4 trillion lost would be a lead pipe hitting the economy.)

RFK Jr. is a dingbat because he has been the #1 anti-vax liar in the world for 30 years. This is like putting a flat-earther in charge of NASA. It's like putting Al Capone in charge of the FBI. (Arguably, Al Capone running FBI should be a lot better than RFK at HHS. Al Capone would understand how criminals operate.)

I am greatly alarmed by this Republican dingbattery assault on the US, because when the next administration is a Democrat president, this will unleash an "Our mandate!" band of banshee dingbats from that side.

(Note: Full disclosure on Tankus. I am irritated about this interruption to Nathan's newsletter. He recently got around 40,000 pages of Federal Reserve documents and was starting to analyze those. I am interested in that. So what he's been distracted to is irritating professionally. )

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Thanks for taking the step and using what platform you've got, Gary.

Undoubtedly it will upset and annoy some (including some already responding), but it has to be stated, or it's assured not a single thing will happen.

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Exactly. Thanks, Gary.

I've been tangling with the idea of challenging two public health organizations I belong to to get involved in the opposition. I'm sure they'd both rather stay out of it, but in both cases their members are now considered "Deep State." Dr. Snyder's book "On Tyranny" recommends defending institutions. Do people on here think defending institutions means trying to get them to stand up?

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Yes, even the EWG (a sad source of bad science) is starting to realize they f’d up. So the real scientists must certainly take a stand.

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Karen Attiah is correct, but her analysis is not the sole reason. This is a conglomeration of factors, largely left-leaning, that MAGA despises. But more than that, I'm increasingly convinced that Trump is in the pocket of Putin, whether through blackmail, bribery, or simple adulation of dictators...or possibly some combination thereof. You can see it in the way they are systematically dismantling everything. If you're Putin, you're watching the willful dismemberment of a country from within... precisely the sort of thing a former KGB officer salivates over. Coincidence? I don't think so.

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Gary, love your perspectives on AI, but like any expert, it’s best to stick to your lane on this one. Getting into the racist trope from WashPo reporter is bad enough, quoting Zeynep actually puts you in a scary place. This is the woman still claiming masks do anything related to COVID. She has shown how disingenuous she can be and you quoting her just belittles your points. Yes, you hate Elon, that’s clear and fine. But complaining about process w/o engaging on the abuses uncovered is just nuts. The best analogy i recently heard is that this is like the girlfriend who accuses her boyfriend of cheating on her after seeing a message

on his phone, and he focuses on her violation of his privacy w/o addressing the elephant in the room, the message saying “i love you” from another woman 🤯.

Don’t be that guy Gary.

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Feb 23Edited

"complaining about process w/o engaging on the abuses uncovered is just nuts"

No! That's absolutely wrong. That couldn't be more wrong. Process is everything. Once you lose respect for following legal process, anything can happen. Process is much, much more important than uncovering the abuses, not that the abuses uncovered so far have been all that egregious or presented to us dispassionately and quantitively.

Let's see what happens. I agree getting into the racist trope doesn't really go anywhere. I don't know whether the rule of law or the republic will collapse. What I do know is that in times and places where they have collapsed, the start of the collapse looks like this. Including remarks like "complaining about process w/o engaging on the abuses uncovered is just nuts"

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well, in this particular instance I’m not really seeing an issue of illegality with the process. but the notion of ignoring that which has so far, even is selectively, been revealed, is a lil’ nuts to me. yes, process is important, so on the merits i’d say that for now it’s unclear whether there’s a real issue with the process that’s been followed regardless of the one group arguing this. their arguments have been mostly in the form of opinion and low on legal facts.

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Solid analysis, Gary. Plenty of former political operatives are definitely speaking up, too. Steve Schmidt, for example, is very vocal on his Substack about what's happening right in front of us.

I worry that now that Trump has begun disobeying the courts, we've blown past the ramparts and are way past a political solution now. It feels as if this only ends one of two ways at this point: 1) America descends into an autocratic, fascist dictatorship; 2) A revolution and/or civil war ignites. If I were going to predict, I'd say the closer we get to #1, the more likely #2 will ignite.

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For those looking for a bit of optimism, this is from Steve Schmidt today >

"There have always been kings, and men who sought to be kings.

There are no kings in America, and there never will be, but many have attempted to be.

Like always, the latest pack will fail. When they do, we will pick up and carry on forward to finish the work of perfecting the Union.

Trump’s first month will be remembered for his blitzkrieg against the government.

Trump’s second month will be recalled as the month that he got stuck in the mud.

Trump’s third month will see an explosion of national opposition.

Remember, as the saying goes, the days are long, but the years are short.

Trump is already falling. It’s just that the media won’t cover it until he zooms by their office windows 50 feet from the ground.

Prices are rising, and his poll numbers are dropping.

Donald Trump isn’t king, and he’s not God.

He’s a president who is overreaching on his way to achieving record unpopularity.

The great disappointment is beginning.

Let it come hard and fast."

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I agree 100% but I feel so helpless. How do we speak up? How do we get our leaders to stop this madness?

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Ask, and ye shall receive.

Choose Democracy https://choosedemocracy.us/what-can-i-do/

Indivisible: A Guide to Democracy on the Brink https://indivisible.org/resource/guide

And call. Fax/email your senators and representatives.

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I recommend Jessica Craven's substack -- she sends a daily email with information on actions/activities to get involved in:

https://chopwoodcarrywaterdailyactions.substack.com/p/chop-wood-carry-water-221-965

I have heard that phones have been slammed with people calling to reps and senators. Highly recommend attending in-person town halls of your local reps, to help get the message directly.

Unfortunately, it doesn't seem that Republican congress will do any push-back, and I don't see Democratic congress having any coordinated plan or ideas.

So, engaging with state & local political reps, getting involved with local groups and building strong community is more important now than ever.

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this is great Michelle and Bruce. I so appreciate it. I've shared with friends... Bad news to hear that he is hand-picking the press now.

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Mr Trump’s actions so far seem to be modelled on Hitler’s Grab of Power in 1933, also ticking many of the boxes describing the characteristics of fascism. The endgame seems to be a revival of US / Russia Yalta World Split 2.0 with Two Authoritarian Superpowers intended to prevent China from supplanting the US as leading Nation in the World. This requires throwing the US constitution under the bus, and the question is whether the US public will react like Germans in 1933 or South Koreans in 2025.

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Watch "Conspiracy" (w/ Kenneth Branagh and Stanley Tucci). It dramatizes the Wannsee Conference, where the SS declared its control of the "final solution." Highly recommended and the parallels ae obvious.

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The Trump admin is REMOVING illegal racism from government policy, where it has sadly been enshrined for decades now.

Very disappointed in you Gary.

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Yep, France forbids all mention of race and ethnicity in official state documents and law, and yet I haven't heard anyone call that relatively liberal society "white supremacist" in shrill tones.

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What will you be doing on 2/28? So simple: don't spend any money and ask your friends to do the same. Prior commitments? Cancel or pay cash. Stop talking and take action by DOING NOTHING.

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Fantastic

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Thank you, Gary. 👏🇺🇲😥🚨👏

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GREAT ON YOU‼️

I needed to talk to someone, to say SOMETHING!

This Elon Musk going around like he’s some school marm assigning book reports, or “what-I-did-last-summer” themes is illegal.

It’s got to be, 😳‼️

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Yes, much of what Trump is doing is illegal, but courts are slow to catch up. There are dozens of lawsuits in progress.

If you need to talk/support, you can call your rep or senator, and/or join on-line live sessions e.g. Heather Cox Richardson chat sessions (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCnbKOlm6H9njgmN-Yil90Rg) -- I also highly recommend her substack (https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/). If you feel the need to *do* something, attend one of the local rallies (e.g. the ones at Tesla dealerships).

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