In a just-published series of very brief essays called “The Incredible, World-Altering ‘Black Swan’ Events That Could Upend Life in 2025”, Politico asked “15 futurists, foreign policy analysts and other prognosticators”, including me, “to provide some explosive potential scenarios for the new year”.
This would have been a rock-solid prediction even without Gen AI helping scammers and scumbag coders of all stripes. We've reported on this at The Technoskeptic. Every year since electronic health records (EHR) were mandated for adoption in the US, there were more hacks than the previous year. EHRS are a fat target because hospitals often cough up the cash. 2024 set a new record at ~100,000,000 Americans health records were exposed in a massive pharmacy records hack.
Now add to already-crap security on EHR systems what scumbags can use easily-jailbroken LLMs to help them do.
Pro tip-and I mean this in deadly earnest. Download a copy of your EHRs from your patient portal. It is entirely possible by the end of 2025, you'll have the only unstolen and uncorrupted copy of them. That might come in handy.
The only event I give a damn about is the very real threat of nuclear war that is wildly more likely precisely because it's not taken seriously. Trump done his usual bend with the wind and has gone from ending Ukraine war now, to "Peace through strength." Ukraine is a red line for Russia. They mean it.
Anyone think Trump would not order SLBM strikes in response to nuclear weapons used in Europe? Yeah. He would and it would be popular. He would poll well that hour and then 2 hours later there are 15 million Americans alive because submarine missiles have one purpose, taking out missile silos.
The response to an SLBM attack is immediate all-launch.
The end. But not for Russia. No other nation is prepared. Russia is. Russia has been through apocalyptic years before. Stalin. WW2. The Mad Max years of Boris Yeltsin.
To have any chance of taking out missile silos the missiles have to be launched as close to the target as possible, preferably, stealth. That means submarines. That's their primary reason for existing. Land based missiles inside the US would not be used for that.
If there is a forward surface navy or airforce system thathappensto be nearby then that could be be used.
You may be thinking about the forward NATO missiles in Europe. Those should be hit first by any Russian attack, from missiles near the border.
So the question is, what would be a Trump response to having those nukes taken out by nukes in Europe?
Here's a counter example of a rare elite with a well planned event. Turkey and the rebellion against Erdogan. The instant it happened, it was addressed publicly with details. Then all the officers involved were rounded up in a day or two. Done and dusted.
Generally if it's a clusterf**k it's a surprise. Covid was a clusterf**k in China and here.
Sadly, most things are surprises and muddled clustrfucks. Why?
1. Elites so-called are rarely very smart. Elon is very rare. And he's wrong sometimes. You can be the world's genius and not know something.
2. When the big bosses jump in, I think you know that things go to shit. Good example: Snowden. He was in Hong Kong. So what does the big boss (Kerry in this case) do? First that nitwit asks China to turn him over. 🤣🤣🤣 Then? Snowden is getting on a plane to Moscow planning to transit to Ecuador. So Kerry revoked Snowdens passport. He lands in Moscow with this gift to Russian intelligence! So sorry! We cannot allow you to enter Russia! Very sorry. 🤣🤣🤣 And then? Kerry pleads with Russia. Do the right thing! Give him to us! 🤣🤣🤣
This was pure stupidity not planned. So now Snowden is protected by the one nation besides China that can protect him. And Snowden blends in there. Had Kerry just let it happen? We have assets all over south America. A 6 foot redhead in a nation of dark skinned people about 5 foot tall?
Running out of ideas @Gary? Very disappointed about the clickbait. Didn’t expect this on this otherwise controversial but interesting channel.
This would have been a rock-solid prediction even without Gen AI helping scammers and scumbag coders of all stripes. We've reported on this at The Technoskeptic. Every year since electronic health records (EHR) were mandated for adoption in the US, there were more hacks than the previous year. EHRS are a fat target because hospitals often cough up the cash. 2024 set a new record at ~100,000,000 Americans health records were exposed in a massive pharmacy records hack.
Now add to already-crap security on EHR systems what scumbags can use easily-jailbroken LLMs to help them do.
Pro tip-and I mean this in deadly earnest. Download a copy of your EHRs from your patient portal. It is entirely possible by the end of 2025, you'll have the only unstolen and uncorrupted copy of them. That might come in handy.
The only event I give a damn about is the very real threat of nuclear war that is wildly more likely precisely because it's not taken seriously. Trump done his usual bend with the wind and has gone from ending Ukraine war now, to "Peace through strength." Ukraine is a red line for Russia. They mean it.
Anyone think Trump would not order SLBM strikes in response to nuclear weapons used in Europe? Yeah. He would and it would be popular. He would poll well that hour and then 2 hours later there are 15 million Americans alive because submarine missiles have one purpose, taking out missile silos.
The response to an SLBM attack is immediate all-launch.
The end. But not for Russia. No other nation is prepared. Russia is. Russia has been through apocalyptic years before. Stalin. WW2. The Mad Max years of Boris Yeltsin.
So that's the only issue I care about.
To have any chance of taking out missile silos the missiles have to be launched as close to the target as possible, preferably, stealth. That means submarines. That's their primary reason for existing. Land based missiles inside the US would not be used for that.
If there is a forward surface navy or airforce system thathappensto be nearby then that could be be used.
You may be thinking about the forward NATO missiles in Europe. Those should be hit first by any Russian attack, from missiles near the border.
So the question is, what would be a Trump response to having those nukes taken out by nukes in Europe?
Entirely plausible. A sub-extinction-level AI event could turn out to be a blessing in disguise.
65%
Here's a counter example of a rare elite with a well planned event. Turkey and the rebellion against Erdogan. The instant it happened, it was addressed publicly with details. Then all the officers involved were rounded up in a day or two. Done and dusted.
Generally if it's a clusterf**k it's a surprise. Covid was a clusterf**k in China and here.
In China they first arrested the doctor who flagged covid as a problem. Classic China. Shoot the messenger, then make him a hero.
Sadly, most things are surprises and muddled clustrfucks. Why?
1. Elites so-called are rarely very smart. Elon is very rare. And he's wrong sometimes. You can be the world's genius and not know something.
2. When the big bosses jump in, I think you know that things go to shit. Good example: Snowden. He was in Hong Kong. So what does the big boss (Kerry in this case) do? First that nitwit asks China to turn him over. 🤣🤣🤣 Then? Snowden is getting on a plane to Moscow planning to transit to Ecuador. So Kerry revoked Snowdens passport. He lands in Moscow with this gift to Russian intelligence! So sorry! We cannot allow you to enter Russia! Very sorry. 🤣🤣🤣 And then? Kerry pleads with Russia. Do the right thing! Give him to us! 🤣🤣🤣
This was pure stupidity not planned. So now Snowden is protected by the one nation besides China that can protect him. And Snowden blends in there. Had Kerry just let it happen? We have assets all over south America. A 6 foot redhead in a nation of dark skinned people about 5 foot tall?